* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 40 41 42 39 36 32 33 33 34 31 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 40 41 42 39 36 32 28 31 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 32 31 27 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 23 25 28 32 42 32 32 20 33 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 0 0 2 0 -5 -5 -1 0 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 217 217 212 213 225 232 240 231 234 255 254 262 310 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 154 156 157 158 157 158 160 159 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 127 129 135 140 143 142 145 146 145 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 41 41 39 39 36 32 36 39 39 32 24 17 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 16 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 28 40 49 51 36 34 48 34 22 3 -28 200 MB DIV 42 27 13 23 48 -4 -8 -35 -19 3 -34 -28 -66 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 -2 -1 -1 -1 6 -1 -2 -7 -1 0 LAND (KM) 558 546 534 529 524 474 359 240 102 -27 22 32 72 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.0 23.5 23.1 22.6 22.0 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.7 72.7 72.7 72.7 73.1 74.3 76.1 78.1 80.1 82.0 83.9 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 0 1 4 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 45 46 47 52 61 39 109 117 144 140 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 4. 1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/12/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)