* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 36 34 31 29 30 28 28 22 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 36 34 31 29 27 27 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 32 30 28 27 24 25 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 26 31 33 42 40 36 31 26 35 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 0 0 -4 -1 -6 -2 0 8 7 0 SHEAR DIR 223 219 215 227 235 232 251 239 255 252 262 274 321 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 154 155 156 157 158 157 156 154 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 130 129 132 135 140 144 143 141 138 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 38 38 37 34 36 37 42 41 34 23 18 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 34 44 37 44 22 44 39 36 11 -1 -35 200 MB DIV 31 16 18 36 25 -14 -18 -33 -12 -24 -29 -47 -45 700-850 TADV 2 3 -3 0 -2 1 -3 -1 -1 -6 -4 -8 4 LAND (KM) 586 559 532 518 503 430 338 215 82 -11 -8 77 197 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.4 72.5 72.6 72.7 73.4 74.6 76.4 78.6 80.5 82.3 83.9 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 45 46 48 50 53 76 107 28 57 86 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/12/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)