* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 33 28 25 25 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 33 28 24 28 25 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 31 29 25 29 26 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 32 36 31 35 46 32 37 25 33 34 29 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 1 -3 -6 0 -1 3 4 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 211 211 219 229 224 242 247 242 254 256 250 314 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 156 157 159 159 158 160 158 155 152 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 128 134 138 144 145 145 146 143 139 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.5 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 36 37 36 42 43 46 39 32 25 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 40 25 32 32 21 36 31 10 7 -15 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 31 34 33 22 -11 -43 -34 -24 -30 -21 -44 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -3 0 0 7 -2 1 0 -1 -3 -6 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 600 629 658 605 551 361 202 20 -48 15 -6 122 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.4 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.7 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.1 71.9 71.7 72.0 72.3 74.0 76.1 78.1 80.0 82.1 83.6 85.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 5 7 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 35 33 38 44 53 75 95 115 86 96 53 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/12/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)