* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 21 23 22 20 23 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 21 23 22 20 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 24 23 21 20 19 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 34 35 43 41 36 33 21 31 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 -2 -6 -2 -2 2 6 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 222 230 226 231 255 241 258 256 281 298 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 157 158 159 156 156 152 150 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 133 138 141 144 140 141 136 132 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 38 37 40 41 45 44 41 27 21 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 38 22 25 24 11 30 25 27 17 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 36 35 1 -14 -27 -39 -45 -33 -55 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 -10 -7 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 615 603 590 528 463 290 141 63 18 85 188 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.7 23.8 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.8 24.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.8 73.5 75.7 77.6 79.4 81.3 82.6 83.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 4 7 9 10 8 9 7 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 37 39 44 54 66 85 111 105 92 42 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -15. -20. -25. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -7. -8. -10. -7. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/13/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)