* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 50 57 61 64 60 64 60 60 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 50 57 61 64 60 64 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 41 40 39 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 22 10 14 16 15 27 27 33 32 41 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 5 4 -1 4 0 6 2 10 5 7 SHEAR DIR 228 231 238 236 230 248 223 251 250 241 187 204 229 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 27.9 26.2 24.7 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 156 156 157 161 160 157 140 122 109 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 149 147 147 147 149 145 145 134 116 101 74 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 74 71 70 71 71 69 56 42 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 16 20 23 26 29 27 31 30 40 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 42 48 66 73 82 72 78 73 109 188 309 200 MB DIV 50 71 83 120 134 70 56 53 100 95 158 146 68 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 0 11 18 34 40 58 30 42 60 LAND (KM) 440 345 259 200 169 217 388 534 724 1130 961 574 207 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.4 20.1 22.0 23.8 25.8 29.5 35.0 40.2 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.5 63.8 64.0 64.1 64.8 66.3 67.2 67.4 66.1 63.4 59.4 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 15 25 30 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 51 55 62 67 75 93 78 55 56 29 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 13. 17. 15. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 15. 22. 26. 29. 25. 29. 25. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)