* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 26 25 24 21 23 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 27 26 23 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 21 25 25 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 35 38 43 46 34 37 22 23 35 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 -4 4 -1 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 229 228 235 244 250 257 313 274 327 301 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 159 159 157 157 155 154 152 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 134 139 143 145 144 143 140 139 135 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 37 38 40 39 39 43 44 34 26 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 27 32 26 20 15 21 15 9 3 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 -11 -20 0 -47 -46 -38 -64 -19 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 5 1 1 3 0 0 -7 -5 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 624 578 534 447 375 182 45 -26 19 134 264 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.3 23.5 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.5 24.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.3 72.7 73.8 74.8 77.2 79.4 81.4 83.4 84.9 86.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 39 44 58 75 84 109 88 100 50 23 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -18. -23. -27. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -7. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/13/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)