* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 47 56 62 68 65 66 71 64 62 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 47 56 62 68 65 66 71 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 39 42 45 48 49 48 46 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 8 9 9 14 21 23 31 29 32 38 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 5 6 3 4 15 6 SHEAR DIR 235 232 258 214 245 260 242 244 246 225 191 199 238 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.6 27.4 25.9 22.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 158 159 159 160 159 148 135 119 92 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 148 150 150 148 147 145 138 129 112 85 71 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 74 71 66 67 69 70 49 38 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 14 16 21 22 26 24 27 31 28 39 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 62 77 74 74 82 67 63 99 155 219 237 200 MB DIV 69 82 114 127 105 71 28 59 93 144 152 110 16 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 4 14 11 37 61 61 37 119 108 LAND (KM) 365 280 205 136 124 268 440 591 880 1105 784 443 77 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.9 20.9 22.5 24.4 27.1 31.3 37.0 42.0 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.8 64.0 64.2 64.5 64.7 65.7 66.7 67.2 66.8 65.1 61.9 57.9 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 18 27 30 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 51 58 66 75 83 85 70 56 23 25 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 13. 11. 13. 17. 13. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 21. 27. 33. 30. 31. 36. 29. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)