* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 31 34 35 38 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 28 31 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 19 21 21 23 23 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 35 42 46 41 33 19 10 16 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 1 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 229 230 243 246 237 292 354 352 332 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 161 158 163 165 163 153 148 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 139 146 154 150 154 157 153 141 134 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 11 12 10 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 39 40 38 46 43 38 29 32 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 34 30 17 32 22 3 -19 -23 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 3 -26 -5 -20 -38 -62 -64 -55 -25 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 0 2 4 0 0 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 605 534 459 312 162 -26 94 111 51 -29 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.8 22.9 21.8 21.2 20.8 20.9 21.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.7 73.4 75.0 76.5 79.0 81.6 84.3 86.4 88.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 12 17 15 12 13 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 44 54 69 82 107 137 117 94 30 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 13. 17. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/13/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)