* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 47 57 63 68 69 69 71 68 64 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 47 57 63 68 69 69 71 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 43 47 50 51 51 49 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 5 14 12 15 20 19 33 39 56 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 -1 2 5 4 9 7 6 8 3 SHEAR DIR 260 271 270 282 277 244 249 259 238 208 195 231 223 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.4 27.0 25.8 20.5 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 158 158 158 160 160 146 130 118 85 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 149 149 149 147 146 147 139 126 109 78 69 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 73 70 66 65 67 67 55 36 19 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 15 16 20 22 24 24 24 27 29 34 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 75 78 81 89 80 73 80 116 171 154 122 200 MB DIV 78 97 102 94 84 68 30 51 110 128 97 18 42 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 4 8 21 22 40 70 -7 65 -83 LAND (KM) 349 253 166 96 100 255 419 601 939 1164 699 398 111 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 20.8 22.4 24.4 27.4 32.1 38.2 42.8 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.1 66.0 66.9 67.0 66.1 64.0 61.0 57.5 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 13 21 29 29 23 19 HEAT CONTENT 52 61 70 48 85 86 75 57 13 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 14. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 22. 28. 33. 34. 34. 36. 33. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)