* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 52 61 68 72 75 76 75 64 56 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 52 61 68 72 75 76 75 64 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 50 53 53 52 49 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 12 16 8 16 12 22 25 39 58 64 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 1 2 7 9 0 7 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 272 274 261 283 269 246 247 244 240 220 227 226 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.7 27.4 25.9 24.0 18.3 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 157 157 158 159 150 134 119 103 77 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 148 147 146 145 145 141 126 111 93 71 67 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.7 -53.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 74 71 66 72 70 64 45 22 19 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 16 17 19 22 25 27 29 30 34 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 68 73 76 80 81 80 80 78 113 135 175 53 50 200 MB DIV 106 103 97 76 98 67 61 102 131 118 25 42 40 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 12 12 19 31 44 87 8 82 -56 -57 LAND (KM) 283 210 170 175 230 400 564 844 1212 951 539 278 151 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3 22.1 23.6 26.3 30.4 35.4 40.8 44.3 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 63.9 64.1 64.5 64.9 65.9 66.3 65.8 64.4 61.9 58.4 55.0 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 18 24 29 26 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 71 71 73 83 88 71 46 27 22 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 18. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 33. 37. 40. 41. 40. 29. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/13/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)