* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 50 57 65 76 80 80 65 49 36 26 18 V (KT) LAND 35 42 50 57 65 76 80 80 65 49 36 26 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 46 51 57 67 74 69 59 49 41 35 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 6 2 10 18 28 31 30 40 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 -5 7 6 12 2 6 7 8 SHEAR DIR 82 73 60 65 71 336 205 221 201 202 203 213 220 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.1 26.3 25.0 26.6 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 149 149 144 127 115 131 137 128 121 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 78 77 73 61 51 42 34 31 30 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 19 14 9 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 81 80 85 95 100 112 84 51 28 8 -12 200 MB DIV 93 128 137 114 93 80 100 71 42 22 44 29 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 11 4 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1026 1061 1096 1078 1062 955 769 516 202 142 136 75 -6 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 6 5 5 8 12 14 12 6 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 38 33 27 15 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 5. -2. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 30. 41. 45. 45. 30. 14. 1. -9. -17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 62% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)