* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 63 70 75 74 78 77 70 63 55 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 63 70 75 74 78 77 70 59 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 56 59 62 63 61 59 56 50 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 21 12 20 20 22 31 30 34 38 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 3 2 4 10 7 4 5 4 12 5 SHEAR DIR 252 256 251 246 231 251 236 234 205 183 190 216 225 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 27.7 26.1 24.8 15.2 10.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 158 158 153 137 121 111 75 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 149 147 146 144 142 130 114 103 71 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -52.4 -51.2 -52.6 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 75 72 69 67 66 70 69 58 46 36 38 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 22 22 27 29 30 32 33 34 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 71 67 72 75 77 77 86 86 138 171 265 283 298 200 MB DIV 98 86 79 84 52 66 111 115 124 134 80 66 39 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 13 9 33 38 75 82 22 -12 53 -7 LAND (KM) 236 216 269 322 404 573 781 1182 1033 594 76 226 565 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.7 25.9 29.4 34.5 40.1 46.2 49.9 51.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.8 64.1 64.8 65.4 66.3 66.3 65.1 62.5 59.0 54.8 50.5 46.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 15 23 29 33 29 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 71 76 87 82 70 46 47 24 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 12 CX,CY: 1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 25. 30. 29. 33. 32. 25. 18. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)