* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 61 70 76 83 87 83 67 48 36 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 53 61 70 76 83 87 83 67 48 36 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 53 61 69 75 81 78 67 56 45 38 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 5 6 2 12 24 34 27 34 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -4 -1 -2 -1 7 10 5 4 6 7 7 SHEAR DIR 115 149 82 68 116 213 190 200 198 215 212 224 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 26.8 25.0 25.3 26.7 27.0 25.6 24.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 145 131 113 117 131 132 117 102 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 6 3 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 78 76 65 55 46 42 40 34 29 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 18 18 18 21 23 18 10 7 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 78 81 87 89 111 96 75 51 24 5 -11 200 MB DIV 107 110 103 117 100 88 80 57 54 27 40 42 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 6 6 -1 -4 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1048 1058 1071 1018 968 839 654 411 180 92 44 25 -1 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.7 17.3 19.3 21.7 24.3 26.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.8 115.0 115.2 115.4 115.0 114.5 114.0 114.0 114.6 114.8 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 7 9 11 13 11 7 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 32 24 17 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 7. -3. -8. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 25. 31. 38. 42. 38. 22. 3. -9. -23. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 6.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 66% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 58% is 15.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)