* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 65 69 72 78 84 82 70 65 52 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 65 69 72 78 84 82 70 65 52 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 60 64 65 64 61 57 48 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 16 17 16 17 20 30 40 55 49 40 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 2 -2 4 12 6 2 6 15 0 5 SHEAR DIR 263 265 260 241 255 248 241 220 213 222 231 223 277 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.4 27.2 25.8 23.0 14.0 11.8 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 159 158 145 132 118 98 72 68 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 146 146 144 134 125 111 91 69 66 68 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 66 66 64 67 68 65 49 31 23 30 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 22 26 26 27 33 38 41 37 39 33 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 76 82 82 85 84 119 139 186 285 280 163 200 MB DIV 82 89 97 82 70 84 116 128 148 40 34 16 -12 700-850 TADV 7 7 15 16 16 41 47 45 29 44 -8 -47 -8 LAND (KM) 230 240 294 354 433 643 927 1231 922 543 23 369 719 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.4 24.5 27.2 31.0 36.1 41.5 47.0 49.7 50.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.1 64.6 65.2 65.8 66.4 65.9 63.8 60.6 56.8 52.7 48.2 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 12 17 25 30 31 25 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 71 83 84 77 65 58 15 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 18. 20. 16. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27. 33. 39. 37. 26. 20. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)