* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 60 66 70 77 81 78 72 71 61 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 60 66 70 77 81 78 72 71 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 51 53 54 55 54 51 46 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 20 23 20 17 19 26 32 40 40 32 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 1 2 5 5 5 3 13 13 1 5 SHEAR DIR 268 251 235 255 268 254 238 213 186 203 246 275 272 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 27.6 26.2 25.6 19.2 12.0 13.9 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 158 158 154 136 121 116 82 69 69 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 147 143 143 143 128 114 108 77 67 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -49.9 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 6 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 67 67 63 68 70 67 58 44 28 29 37 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 20 21 22 25 27 28 33 35 37 35 42 38 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 81 78 76 81 75 106 120 171 284 341 323 200 MB DIV 84 110 92 59 70 95 116 108 167 56 7 3 8 700-850 TADV 7 11 12 24 27 40 46 56 20 -26 -35 16 13 LAND (KM) 244 294 376 451 533 760 1193 1126 734 328 190 533 827 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.3 25.4 29.3 33.7 38.9 43.8 48.3 50.3 50.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.6 65.2 65.7 66.1 65.8 64.6 62.2 58.5 54.5 50.4 46.1 41.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 15 22 27 30 28 21 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 82 83 71 59 51 52 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 17. 18. 16. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 32. 36. 33. 27. 26. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)