* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 57 60 61 55 49 39 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 57 60 61 55 49 39 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 55 55 49 41 34 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 13 10 20 23 25 20 22 28 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 0 -6 0 11 9 10 2 7 10 4 3 SHEAR DIR 87 61 108 107 97 149 179 185 222 214 212 225 239 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.6 24.9 25.6 26.6 25.6 24.3 23.3 22.1 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 137 130 113 120 130 118 104 93 80 72 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 3 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 78 73 69 56 47 43 35 32 29 25 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 24 22 21 18 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 75 83 87 87 87 98 84 74 63 31 38 17 19 200 MB DIV 108 114 108 79 58 57 40 68 33 47 35 42 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 1 0 -4 -13 -8 7 LAND (KM) 1056 1007 961 887 815 628 324 211 97 100 226 287 327 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.5 19.7 22.6 24.8 26.5 27.6 28.3 28.6 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.2 115.4 115.4 115.3 115.0 114.4 114.4 114.9 116.0 117.4 118.4 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 13 13 10 8 7 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 4. -1. -6. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 16. 10. 4. -6. -18. -28. -37. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)