* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 60 62 62 69 72 71 63 55 55 50 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 60 62 62 69 72 71 63 55 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 56 58 59 59 56 53 47 43 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 22 24 18 26 23 28 39 46 47 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 2 6 1 8 5 5 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 258 247 249 260 254 247 225 202 186 206 239 262 288 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.4 27.2 25.8 23.7 15.2 15.0 16.0 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 159 146 131 118 103 75 72 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 145 145 147 137 124 112 95 72 68 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.5 -49.4 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 67 68 66 49 40 35 41 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 21 24 24 23 28 31 32 30 27 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 77 79 80 74 71 70 84 67 46 89 285 320 231 200 MB DIV 114 87 45 51 72 86 133 149 101 50 81 15 -28 700-850 TADV 11 15 17 26 30 50 48 28 4 -22 -26 -44 6 LAND (KM) 260 314 392 489 582 912 1253 976 626 204 590 868 1002 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.9 23.8 26.8 30.9 35.6 41.1 45.9 49.9 50.8 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.4 65.0 65.5 65.9 66.3 65.4 63.6 60.5 55.9 50.7 45.1 41.4 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 12 19 24 30 31 29 20 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 86 79 69 54 53 18 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 7. 10. 11. 9. 5. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 12. 12. 19. 22. 21. 13. 5. 5. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/14/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)