* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 63 63 60 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 63 63 60 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 56 57 54 47 38 31 25 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 5 8 16 26 29 29 39 31 30 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -2 3 12 17 7 11 3 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 56 127 151 102 121 194 180 206 199 204 216 228 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.7 25.8 25.0 26.0 26.6 25.3 24.1 22.3 20.1 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 130 122 114 124 129 116 103 84 62 61 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 77 73 69 64 50 45 39 34 30 28 24 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 21 21 23 26 18 13 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 83 87 87 88 101 111 93 70 50 40 24 27 41 200 MB DIV 103 109 96 81 77 64 66 25 43 41 32 -10 -17 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 0 4 6 6 -8 -8 0 6 3 LAND (KM) 1028 963 901 817 736 518 264 212 133 167 265 418 614 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.3 20.6 23.0 24.9 26.5 27.7 28.7 29.2 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.2 115.1 114.5 114.0 114.4 115.4 116.7 118.2 120.2 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 11 12 11 9 9 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 16 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. -1. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 10. -7. -20. -35. -47. -55. -59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)