* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 67 70 72 73 71 62 52 53 46 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 67 70 72 73 71 62 52 53 46 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 70 71 70 66 61 56 49 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 19 20 23 29 32 30 40 40 41 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 6 5 1 2 5 8 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 245 244 245 248 247 250 230 198 203 212 264 284 279 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.0 26.9 25.6 20.6 15.5 16.2 15.4 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 157 156 140 128 118 89 76 75 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 144 143 143 130 121 113 84 73 71 67 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 66 70 68 60 48 35 39 53 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 24 26 24 29 30 32 33 29 26 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 75 78 82 76 81 72 76 44 47 141 245 282 275 200 MB DIV 87 56 70 72 67 99 127 156 120 52 70 33 35 700-850 TADV 19 25 30 29 37 46 49 8 7 -61 16 71 57 LAND (KM) 339 400 469 584 700 1030 1304 955 444 538 1125 1516 1307 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.8 24.8 27.7 31.5 36.6 42.7 47.1 49.6 49.9 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.1 65.5 65.7 65.8 64.7 62.7 58.8 52.9 45.7 37.6 31.7 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 18 26 34 36 31 24 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 77 68 55 46 53 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 2. -8. -7. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)