* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 75 75 74 62 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 75 75 74 62 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 70 72 71 63 52 41 33 26 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 7 10 23 35 29 35 32 25 23 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 3 10 13 6 4 9 2 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 102 91 53 110 164 192 192 210 198 204 231 289 28 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.0 25.1 25.4 26.6 26.5 25.0 22.6 19.4 17.8 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 135 124 115 118 129 128 113 89 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -52.0 -53.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 7 6 6 4 5 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 68 64 55 50 43 37 33 28 27 25 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 26 23 17 10 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 77 74 91 100 86 64 59 32 44 52 32 -1 200 MB DIV 94 75 84 79 78 54 75 33 40 37 16 -25 -20 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 9 7 0 -5 -6 -4 3 1 LAND (KM) 1011 930 851 745 645 395 190 166 163 296 404 347 188 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.2 21.7 23.9 25.5 26.7 28.2 30.1 31.7 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.3 115.2 115.0 114.8 114.2 113.9 114.5 116.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 12 10 9 11 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -15. -18. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 5. -4. -12. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 15. 14. 2. -15. -34. -46. -57. -67. -75. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)