* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 74 76 71 67 53 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 71 74 76 71 67 53 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 73 72 69 59 47 37 29 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 5 19 28 29 30 40 28 21 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 7 11 12 14 7 7 7 9 5 12 9 SHEAR DIR 126 95 101 121 190 178 209 198 191 201 216 54 120 SST (C) 28.2 27.3 26.3 25.2 25.0 26.1 26.7 25.7 23.8 20.8 18.5 18.0 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 127 116 114 124 130 121 101 70 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -51.4 -51.7 -53.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 68 65 59 52 49 42 34 29 28 23 25 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 24 20 24 20 15 10 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 75 98 96 74 61 62 60 77 65 27 -18 200 MB DIV 83 72 83 78 62 51 23 38 40 37 -10 -20 -28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -6 -1 5 9 2 -8 -13 -11 -4 14 LAND (KM) 956 847 742 618 506 273 184 187 290 471 593 524 449 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.4 22.7 24.5 25.9 27.0 28.2 29.7 31.2 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 114.8 114.6 114.4 114.1 113.7 114.1 115.5 117.8 120.3 122.8 124.2 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 13 10 9 11 12 13 11 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -21. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -12. -17. -19. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 5. 0. -7. -13. -18. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 6. 2. -12. -28. -46. -62. -76. -83. -91. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)