* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 69 69 71 72 72 67 59 56 56 50 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 69 69 71 72 72 67 59 56 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 67 66 63 60 56 51 48 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 28 27 27 28 33 20 22 27 40 34 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 5 3 0 11 12 9 4 -1 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 259 266 252 246 245 231 223 201 220 259 279 282 258 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.1 25.6 24.0 18.0 19.0 16.0 15.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 143 136 130 116 104 80 82 74 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 131 126 123 108 97 76 77 70 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -54.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 70 66 61 50 37 38 45 51 47 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 26 27 29 30 32 30 29 31 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 77 74 81 78 71 68 45 31 49 137 192 193 224 200 MB DIV 61 91 73 93 111 121 158 123 61 73 33 38 1 700-850 TADV 33 35 41 48 43 45 24 12 17 25 79 44 10 LAND (KM) 457 568 679 837 997 1334 1034 733 556 1021 1527 1138 944 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.6 24.6 26.0 27.4 31.2 35.7 40.1 44.1 46.9 48.4 48.9 48.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.6 65.6 65.2 64.7 62.5 58.9 53.9 47.0 39.3 31.0 25.6 22.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 15 18 24 28 31 31 30 24 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 48 29 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 6. 5. 6. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -6. -9. -9. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)