* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 78 76 65 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 78 76 65 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 79 77 72 61 49 39 31 24 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 12 14 22 26 23 31 37 38 33 17 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 11 13 13 10 7 5 4 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 110 102 117 181 188 194 213 208 214 220 243 256 214 SST (C) 27.9 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.7 27.2 26.7 25.1 23.7 22.4 21.3 20.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 134 128 127 132 136 130 113 99 85 74 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 3 4 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 66 65 59 51 50 47 39 37 32 27 22 23 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 24 24 25 24 18 12 10 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 77 87 92 79 58 63 47 39 32 30 9 37 200 MB DIV 69 92 59 27 45 65 30 43 30 36 -34 -13 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 3 3 5 2 -2 -4 -2 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 843 732 623 504 396 165 166 103 148 143 117 108 38 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.3 23.7 25.3 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.7 32.3 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 114.5 114.1 113.8 113.5 113.4 114.1 115.1 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.2 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 10 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -20. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -7. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 3. 1. -10. -27. -46. -62. -77. -91.-100.-103. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)