* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 64 68 69 63 51 47 46 45 42 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 64 68 69 63 51 47 46 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 59 58 56 53 49 44 41 41 44 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 26 27 28 34 37 41 51 45 22 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 7 3 3 5 6 8 3 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 255 246 242 227 211 228 213 226 243 260 252 222 210 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.5 25.5 20.1 20.1 17.3 16.4 16.4 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 143 135 131 124 116 86 86 78 75 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 131 125 122 116 108 81 80 74 71 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -51.6 -50.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 65 65 49 37 33 32 32 36 47 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 26 26 28 32 34 32 26 28 30 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 78 75 91 94 82 50 69 128 184 263 235 200 MB DIV 89 92 97 122 152 152 127 59 56 24 16 28 18 700-850 TADV 33 47 57 42 23 61 21 -2 7 -45 -35 -18 -15 LAND (KM) 567 706 846 1030 1215 1193 860 530 781 1340 1320 970 810 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.9 26.1 27.7 29.3 33.2 38.0 42.1 45.0 46.7 47.4 47.4 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.6 65.4 64.8 64.1 61.6 57.4 51.3 43.3 35.1 27.2 21.7 18.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 17 20 26 30 32 31 28 23 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 50 30 6 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 6. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 3. -9. -13. -14. -15. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)