* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 101 98 92 70 49 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 101 101 98 92 70 49 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 100 98 92 85 69 54 42 32 24 18 20 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 14 22 26 32 30 41 43 40 28 7 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 7 14 14 4 5 10 4 4 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 116 141 182 191 193 218 225 216 227 230 231 242 307 SST (C) 27.1 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.7 26.0 24.1 23.0 22.3 22.1 20.9 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 129 134 139 141 123 103 91 83 82 69 60 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -53.0 -53.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 62 56 49 47 40 32 30 24 24 20 22 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 22 24 24 18 14 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 85 81 75 68 58 57 37 22 24 22 30 24 200 MB DIV 78 63 63 65 80 35 27 26 43 4 -14 -24 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 6 12 11 -1 0 -6 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 728 604 484 370 240 93 78 51 118 65 5 -16 -156 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.4 22.7 25.0 26.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 31.5 33.2 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.0 113.5 113.2 112.9 113.2 114.4 115.4 116.4 116.6 116.6 117.2 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 10 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 3 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -33. -40. -46. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -23. -29. -33. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -4. -10. -17. -20. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 3. -3. -25. -46. -70. -88.-104.-115.-120.-126. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)