* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 80 81 82 82 78 65 57 48 48 43 37 V (KT) LAND 75 77 80 81 82 82 78 65 57 48 48 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 80 79 77 71 63 52 45 42 43 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 23 26 35 34 34 33 37 31 17 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 6 0 8 13 9 9 1 2 7 3 SHEAR DIR 259 248 230 203 221 207 204 224 262 253 262 263 308 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.1 25.7 22.5 16.9 17.2 16.1 16.4 16.4 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 137 131 130 118 97 79 78 73 69 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 127 123 123 112 91 75 74 68 64 61 63 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -50.4 -47.8 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 65 57 44 34 39 44 42 35 51 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 28 29 32 34 35 29 29 27 32 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 86 80 78 93 98 90 59 74 96 137 215 314 289 200 MB DIV 92 95 135 171 140 158 118 34 44 30 1 -7 -10 700-850 TADV 44 56 22 27 39 23 14 -37 46 4 -19 3 12 LAND (KM) 679 836 995 1218 1291 973 578 563 1235 1420 1228 1171 1218 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 26.0 27.4 29.3 31.2 36.0 41.5 45.5 47.6 48.2 47.3 47.4 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.3 64.9 64.0 63.0 59.6 54.0 46.0 36.3 29.3 25.7 24.9 26.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 21 24 32 35 35 29 18 8 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 27 9 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 3. 3. 1. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. -10. -18. -27. -27. -32. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)