* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 77 77 77 69 55 51 48 44 34 27 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 77 77 77 69 55 51 48 44 34 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 76 74 72 66 57 48 43 42 44 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 34 37 37 29 35 36 38 21 15 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -2 2 11 11 11 1 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 247 232 205 219 216 208 213 241 249 219 272 302 278 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.4 18.0 19.1 16.1 15.6 16.1 15.7 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 132 129 122 115 81 83 75 69 66 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 123 123 115 108 77 78 71 65 61 63 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.4 -50.9 -47.8 -47.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 57 52 41 32 38 40 34 45 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 30 31 32 35 33 26 29 30 30 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 78 78 96 97 89 71 56 103 139 236 328 317 215 200 MB DIV 93 132 163 148 167 156 42 53 61 17 16 -19 -18 700-850 TADV 49 23 22 28 35 30 52 19 17 -36 -26 -12 -13 LAND (KM) 825 1014 1204 1304 1137 804 443 837 1485 1264 1246 1188 1118 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.6 29.2 31.5 33.8 38.6 43.2 46.7 48.5 48.8 47.8 48.4 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.7 64.1 62.7 61.3 57.2 50.4 41.8 32.8 27.4 26.4 26.0 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 21 26 27 32 35 33 25 11 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 7 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 5. -1. 1. 3. 2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -6. -20. -24. -27. -31. -41. -48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 6( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)