* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 79 71 62 50 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 87 79 71 62 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 88 81 73 66 43 38 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 24 34 33 29 44 43 36 17 19 27 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 12 5 -5 5 4 1 2 0 0 3 9 SHEAR DIR 198 207 203 217 231 242 237 227 224 240 253 262 263 SST (C) 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 25.1 22.0 18.8 17.6 17.4 17.5 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 142 148 149 150 149 115 83 62 61 62 61 59 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.9 -53.8 -57.0 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 48 47 42 40 28 24 22 24 33 39 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 21 21 17 13 10 8 7 6 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 60 53 39 32 14 28 15 40 12 7 -18 -12 200 MB DIV 67 60 87 42 35 62 16 27 -9 8 9 28 -10 700-850 TADV 6 9 15 14 13 -1 -2 -7 -2 1 -11 -50 -42 LAND (KM) 382 256 121 -1 3 -37 1 104 324 295 289 371 307 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.1 27.5 28.9 30.0 31.3 32.3 33.8 35.7 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 112.7 112.2 112.3 112.3 112.8 114.5 117.0 120.2 121.9 123.5 125.9 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 9 11 14 12 9 12 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 13 11 6 2 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -35. -45. -52. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -23. -28. -33. -35. -36. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -33. -44. -60. -81. -99.-110.-118.-128.-141. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)