* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 76 75 71 58 50 49 48 42 31 25 V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 76 75 71 58 50 49 48 42 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 77 75 72 64 53 47 44 44 48 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 39 41 36 35 34 32 26 5 8 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 -2 4 9 6 9 1 0 -2 7 5 SHEAR DIR 231 202 218 222 213 223 237 262 241 229 293 325 287 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.7 23.0 18.5 16.6 15.1 14.8 16.2 17.0 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 130 123 118 99 83 77 71 66 70 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 123 117 111 93 79 73 67 62 65 65 67 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -49.6 -46.6 -48.3 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 66 64 54 50 44 34 35 40 38 42 62 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 29 31 33 34 28 27 30 31 29 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 77 93 105 93 87 55 67 136 169 262 259 267 272 200 MB DIV 137 168 146 160 152 87 19 42 32 -6 -9 -17 3 700-850 TADV 26 16 23 37 25 16 1 30 -2 -5 -2 3 -15 LAND (KM) 1014 1233 1277 1140 958 633 647 1235 1337 1189 1472 1525 1366 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 29.5 31.3 33.8 36.3 41.0 45.2 48.5 50.3 50.2 48.1 46.7 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 64.0 63.1 61.2 59.3 53.6 45.0 36.2 29.3 27.1 30.0 29.7 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 25 30 31 35 36 29 15 6 10 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -28. -35. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16. -14. -10. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -6. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. -1. -2. 0. 1. -1. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -22. -30. -31. -32. -38. -49. -55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 4( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)