* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 75 67 58 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 83 75 67 58 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 77 70 62 48 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 31 32 33 36 43 40 18 6 4 37 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 16 9 0 1 7 5 6 6 11 3 12 7 SHEAR DIR 212 201 214 221 219 220 219 210 211 189 251 256 249 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.6 27.9 26.9 25.8 23.7 21.0 18.3 18.0 18.1 17.6 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 142 131 120 100 73 62 61 62 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.9 -54.8 -57.9 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 3 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 47 42 43 39 33 30 25 25 28 37 55 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 16 14 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 42 50 56 33 27 50 40 13 -6 -24 0 200 MB DIV 55 94 64 36 66 48 21 36 -13 18 19 23 25 700-850 TADV 7 11 16 11 4 -4 -5 -6 -4 4 -8 -52 -65 LAND (KM) 176 60 10 81 87 36 139 309 478 443 426 476 316 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30.6 31.8 33.7 36.0 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.2 112.2 113.1 113.9 114.3 116.4 118.9 122.2 123.7 125.2 127.5 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 9 8 5 8 12 14 12 10 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 18 CX,CY: 6/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -15. -26. -37. -46. -52. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -28. -30. -30. -28. -31. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -19. -22. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -32. -53. -73. -93.-107.-116.-122.-129.-145. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)