* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 71 72 65 54 48 48 43 34 26 24 V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 71 72 65 54 48 48 43 34 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 70 68 65 57 51 48 46 46 47 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 38 37 30 28 24 24 23 13 5 7 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 3 4 4 8 10 3 4 4 6 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 205 213 211 212 205 221 235 255 209 141 358 306 288 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.7 25.3 17.6 19.2 15.6 14.5 14.3 15.4 17.2 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 123 118 115 81 84 73 66 67 70 77 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 116 112 108 77 79 69 62 63 66 73 81 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -50.7 -48.3 -48.6 -49.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 63 57 52 47 42 37 44 50 46 62 62 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 31 33 32 36 33 27 27 31 31 28 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 85 97 104 82 81 55 106 164 271 298 273 263 274 200 MB DIV 164 152 173 155 158 22 43 56 57 3 -48 -31 2 700-850 TADV 29 33 29 22 0 -22 -9 50 -12 3 35 5 -6 LAND (KM) 1222 1275 1132 961 788 444 976 1512 1322 1366 1364 1543 1410 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 31.7 33.8 36.4 38.9 43.5 46.9 49.3 51.1 51.3 49.9 46.4 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.4 63.0 61.5 59.2 56.8 49.7 39.9 32.3 29.4 30.1 34.3 32.5 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 28 32 33 37 33 20 6 8 13 26 34 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 20 CX,CY: 5/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -13. -21. -27. -32. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 0. -4. -5. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -10. -21. -27. -27. -32. -41. -49. -51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 160.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/16/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 2( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)