* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 45 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 61 47 46 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 61 54 49 40 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 29 29 29 30 39 36 30 12 5 13 69 95 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 4 0 -1 5 10 9 7 8 10 -1 1 -12 SHEAR DIR 214 209 224 234 224 223 211 205 173 125 264 255 252 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.1 26.1 23.4 21.9 19.6 17.8 17.7 17.2 16.0 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 146 125 96 81 62 61 61 62 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -55.9 -57.9 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 3 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 39 34 27 23 25 26 31 34 56 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 14 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 44 26 30 37 23 23 42 21 15 2 -2 47 200 MB DIV 79 72 68 51 70 29 35 3 17 -6 47 -1 29 700-850 TADV 15 13 14 9 0 -12 -14 0 -3 9 -18 -71 -19 LAND (KM) 49 1 -3 8 -22 85 217 365 406 368 301 293 8 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.2 28.6 29.2 30.0 31.6 33.0 35.3 38.2 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.2 112.1 113.0 113.9 115.4 117.9 120.0 122.8 123.8 124.7 126.7 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 11 10 10 11 12 11 10 14 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 1 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 15 CX,CY: 1/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -27. -33. -38. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -23. -23. -23. -33. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 8. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -21. -21. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -32. -49. -67. -82. -92.-100.-104.-116.-132. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)