* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 68 64 56 44 47 44 38 28 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 68 64 56 44 47 44 38 28 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 66 62 53 46 44 43 43 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 35 29 39 29 29 16 11 7 15 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 6 5 6 4 2 15 6 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 216 209 204 204 205 210 256 232 144 94 344 326 296 SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.7 25.4 23.6 18.6 16.9 14.5 13.0 13.5 16.7 18.3 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 117 115 103 83 78 70 63 69 74 78 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 110 109 96 79 74 66 60 65 69 73 78 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -50.3 -47.7 -49.5 -50.1 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 57 51 44 39 36 35 43 48 56 69 58 60 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 32 32 36 34 31 26 31 32 32 28 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 95 99 86 75 69 60 131 226 284 324 259 268 311 200 MB DIV 159 165 143 122 97 46 27 43 10 9 -52 -28 24 700-850 TADV 16 27 14 -4 -22 -77 -52 46 6 33 20 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1269 1136 956 825 658 617 1230 1394 1309 1471 1259 1495 1403 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 33.8 36.0 38.4 40.8 44.5 48.0 51.0 52.9 51.9 48.2 45.0 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 61.6 60.0 57.2 54.4 45.8 36.3 30.4 29.7 31.8 35.9 33.7 26.3 STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 29 33 34 37 30 16 3 15 18 22 30 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 23 CX,CY: 10/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -6. -1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -11. -19. -31. -28. -31. -37. -47. -55. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)