* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 44 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 44 32 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 44 36 31 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 31 30 33 37 40 29 26 16 11 6 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 -2 4 6 6 3 8 5 5 0 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 213 221 228 222 220 223 203 228 236 195 252 287 N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.3 25.4 23.5 22.9 21.0 19.8 18.8 17.8 17.4 17.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 137 117 97 91 70 59 60 59 59 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -53.3 -54.5 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 38 32 27 24 26 21 24 31 33 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 17 14 13 9 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 35 41 36 22 26 30 28 31 35 31 25 N/A 200 MB DIV 55 58 49 47 45 25 13 -1 10 2 22 20 N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 2 -3 -11 -4 0 3 7 6 4 0 N/A LAND (KM) 34 57 -11 -22 33 146 291 365 425 386 320 148 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.6 31.7 32.7 33.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.2 115.0 116.8 118.8 119.9 121.0 122.6 122.9 121.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 7 7 6 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -15. -22. -26. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -17. -21. -24. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -15. -17. -16. -15. -12. -10. -9. -9. -7. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -11. -16. -16. -18. -20. -20. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -29. -38. -53. -66. -79. -87. -93. -99.-100.-101. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)