* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 66 63 59 51 47 43 36 36 26 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 66 63 59 51 47 43 36 36 26 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 65 61 57 48 45 45 45 46 46 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 29 29 33 34 34 20 5 3 5 16 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 9 8 7 7 3 -3 13 14 5 10 6 4 SHEAR DIR 205 194 182 200 202 223 229 192 122 153 17 339 291 SST (C) 26.3 25.7 25.4 23.2 18.0 19.3 14.8 12.8 11.9 13.8 17.0 19.1 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 115 100 81 85 73 65 64 70 75 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 108 94 78 80 69 62 62 66 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -51.3 -49.4 -47.7 -48.2 -49.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 51 46 39 37 33 41 52 58 72 71 70 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 31 30 30 25 25 24 23 27 25 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 98 74 66 41 55 85 230 352 325 308 291 255 258 200 MB DIV 149 147 119 58 40 38 48 57 40 -16 -7 -29 4 700-850 TADV 18 7 -14 -40 -35 -114 18 42 19 22 16 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1105 954 807 644 435 897 1492 1340 1498 1371 1506 1737 1582 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 36.3 38.6 40.9 43.2 46.7 50.4 53.0 53.6 51.4 46.7 43.8 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 59.4 57.1 53.9 50.6 41.0 32.5 30.2 32.8 34.3 32.9 31.1 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 27 30 31 34 36 36 23 8 7 17 20 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 27 CX,CY: 11/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -32. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 21. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -11. -19. -23. -27. -34. -34. -44. -53. -56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)