* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 30 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 34 38 40 24 23 7 2 15 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 6 7 6 1 5 0 3 5 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 228 220 214 215 199 238 237 226 269 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 26.5 24.6 23.8 23.4 20.1 18.9 17.7 17.9 17.4 16.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 129 109 101 97 62 60 61 60 60 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -54.2 -56.2 -57.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 37 32 24 24 23 24 24 30 28 36 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 14 12 10 8 6 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 44 38 33 39 46 41 18 17 10 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 54 25 36 43 35 -3 4 -1 33 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 -2 -6 -12 -9 -4 0 2 2 -25 -70 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 15 11 79 191 357 447 372 386 318 184 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.5 27.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.8 33.3 34.7 36.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.7 115.8 116.9 119.7 121.1 122.5 124.4 124.5 124.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 12 10 8 10 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -6. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. -10. -10. -8. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -29. -44. -56. -65. -72. -77. -89. -93. -97. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 43.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)