* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 37 39 42 37 16 2 7 12 51 91 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 5 2 0 8 15 3 0 6 -13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 210 209 211 208 225 226 92 264 267 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 24.4 23.6 23.1 21.9 18.9 17.9 17.3 17.2 15.5 13.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 108 99 93 82 61 60 61 61 61 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -54.7 -56.8 -57.9 -57.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 29 23 24 24 26 20 26 25 29 45 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 38 47 36 46 15 -17 0 -16 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 34 39 51 25 13 -15 10 13 2 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -7 -11 -6 -10 -18 -7 3 -34 -77 -103 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 11 28 103 182 243 412 375 282 293 137 -68 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.4 28.1 28.6 29.0 30.5 31.5 33.4 35.3 37.2 39.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.9 116.0 117.1 118.1 120.8 121.9 123.0 124.6 123.9 122.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 12 10 9 11 10 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -19. -19. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -16. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 5. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 21. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -22. -33. -43. -55. -60. -68. -86. -94.-104. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 39.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)