* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 51 45 37 33 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 51 45 37 33 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 57 52 49 44 42 42 42 42 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 31 32 27 30 25 8 6 7 15 29 41 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 4 3 3 -3 7 16 6 7 9 9 13 SHEAR DIR 197 206 202 213 224 236 200 149 135 2 349 333 294 SST (C) 25.6 23.5 18.7 18.5 19.5 15.6 13.6 12.0 11.6 15.0 18.4 19.3 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 102 83 83 85 74 68 65 66 72 78 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 96 79 79 80 70 64 63 64 69 73 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -50.9 -49.3 -49.4 -50.6 -50.6 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 42 43 37 37 40 48 50 64 61 58 55 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 33 32 28 26 23 25 22 30 25 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 78 53 45 55 52 164 245 297 286 246 252 237 224 200 MB DIV 145 56 21 61 32 56 49 44 -17 -51 -27 -32 -39 700-850 TADV -22 -23 -68 -35 -73 5 18 9 10 26 2 2 -27 LAND (KM) 758 656 482 613 890 1483 1266 1353 1337 1234 1660 1657 1591 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.8 42.8 44.6 46.4 49.3 52.3 54.0 53.2 50.1 44.8 43.0 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 54.2 50.4 45.8 41.2 32.7 28.9 30.7 35.3 36.1 31.6 29.5 28.8 STM SPEED (KT) 31 35 36 37 35 25 12 10 13 22 21 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 29 CX,CY: 15/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 8. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -26. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -12. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -28. -32. -41. -40. -51. -61. -68. -73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)