* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP162012 10/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 37 39 35 27 11 5 7 21 53 82 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 2 4 3 7 7 -1 3 8 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 214 210 213 211 243 126 159 255 251 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.6 22.8 21.5 20.1 18.0 17.5 17.3 16.9 14.9 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 100 91 77 63 61 60 61 61 61 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -54.0 -55.0 -57.4 -58.2 -57.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 25 22 24 25 20 21 26 30 42 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 45 35 31 23 -5 -7 -12 -3 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 43 37 23 24 -8 -3 2 36 8 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -14 -11 -13 -12 -14 3 -1 -46 -60 -41 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 96 164 235 308 381 328 278 282 124 -96 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.4 29.9 31.4 32.5 34.3 36.2 38.0 40.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.9 117.1 118.2 119.3 121.8 122.8 123.7 125.1 124.3 123.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 10 8 11 9 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -19. -18. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -16. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 24. 25. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -17. -25. -35. -44. -47. -56. -71. -79. -89. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162012 PAUL 10/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 36.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)