* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182012 10/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 58 68 74 75 73 69 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 58 60 49 51 49 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 44 37 38 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 6 13 14 14 26 29 49 40 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -5 0 0 7 3 5 1 8 1 7 SHEAR DIR 330 216 248 277 278 227 231 228 211 204 195 221 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 157 158 159 160 160 161 158 152 144 137 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 148 151 153 153 151 151 147 141 128 117 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 8 6 7 7 8 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 81 82 81 80 81 77 75 68 62 57 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 18 21 26 28 32 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 108 119 127 129 129 152 156 205 237 235 243 224 222 200 MB DIV 74 94 105 96 121 124 157 153 157 94 71 19 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 5 17 19 10 5 -3 0 6 LAND (KM) 374 385 396 455 417 221 34 67 -60 162 437 585 644 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.8 17.4 18.9 20.6 22.5 24.8 26.0 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.6 78.4 77.9 77.3 76.8 76.3 75.6 74.5 73.8 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 3 5 7 8 8 8 9 11 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 66 68 78 88 77 73 89 75 79 59 46 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -4. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 14. 18. 18. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 33. 43. 49. 50. 48. 44. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 EIGHTEEN 10/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 EIGHTEEN 10/22/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)