* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 65 74 83 90 94 91 86 77 71 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 65 74 75 58 64 60 55 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 58 63 73 71 55 56 54 49 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 11 6 15 21 27 34 38 44 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 0 2 5 -2 13 7 6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 31 301 250 259 259 238 201 223 201 205 190 223 231 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 159 160 162 158 151 147 141 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 152 153 153 153 154 147 137 131 123 118 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.4 -50.5 -49.7 -50.3 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 81 81 79 79 74 66 58 45 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 17 18 22 27 30 36 37 41 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 115 124 133 136 152 156 186 221 252 253 258 232 228 200 MB DIV 92 101 92 118 142 134 158 168 135 96 13 -6 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 3 14 13 17 5 -7 -8 3 -6 LAND (KM) 357 418 452 372 291 106 52 -51 146 320 465 569 626 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.8 18.8 20.7 22.4 23.9 25.2 26.4 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.6 78.5 78.3 78.1 77.6 77.0 76.4 75.8 75.3 74.9 74.4 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 63 73 83 89 84 67 88 75 79 72 58 49 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 15. 21. 22. 24. 22. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 51. 46. 37. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)