* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 43 48 52 52 53 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 43 48 52 52 53 54 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 43 42 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 6 10 17 24 29 42 48 49 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 3 -3 1 -1 2 -8 -7 1 -11 SHEAR DIR 335 331 317 304 236 241 244 248 246 247 247 233 263 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.3 22.3 21.3 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 126 125 122 116 109 102 96 90 85 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 115 112 111 109 105 99 93 87 81 77 75 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -57.7 -57.8 -59.0 -59.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 42 39 34 30 31 34 40 46 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -17 -22 -21 -18 -26 -29 -30 -16 3 39 80 67 200 MB DIV -14 -21 -4 27 7 6 45 69 55 87 82 61 50 700-850 TADV 8 10 3 3 5 0 -1 1 7 4 9 4 8 LAND (KM) 1521 1560 1604 1688 1773 2015 2194 2187 2201 2124 1960 1813 1568 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.9 27.9 29.0 30.4 32.2 34.2 36.0 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 51.7 51.6 51.1 50.5 48.4 45.5 42.2 38.7 35.4 32.5 29.7 27.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 12 15 16 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 51 42 25 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -6. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. 22. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 22. 23. 24. 27. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)