* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 59 70 79 89 93 92 87 78 67 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 59 70 72 61 65 65 59 50 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 51 55 62 62 52 54 52 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 10 9 16 21 33 40 39 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 5 2 6 5 8 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 283 282 250 241 227 224 220 204 194 221 225 222 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 160 160 162 156 148 142 138 134 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 152 155 155 153 154 145 134 124 119 117 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 82 81 80 82 78 67 55 46 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 19 19 26 29 34 38 41 43 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 126 134 141 158 155 164 204 227 245 264 245 230 222 200 MB DIV 95 84 106 127 141 157 168 198 169 98 14 42 90 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 9 17 32 21 9 -8 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 387 436 448 355 263 50 67 28 261 420 467 554 744 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 17.3 19.2 21.4 23.5 25.0 25.9 27.2 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.5 78.3 78.1 77.8 77.5 76.9 76.2 75.7 75.4 75.5 74.5 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 9 10 10 11 9 6 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 69 88 104 114 110 58 82 81 61 67 56 33 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 24. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 30. 39. 49. 53. 52. 47. 38. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)