* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192012 10/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 44 43 41 43 47 52 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 44 43 41 43 47 52 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 38 36 35 35 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 13 20 23 36 43 50 43 40 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 -4 -2 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 319 308 258 256 228 256 243 263 257 267 256 251 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.3 23.3 22.3 21.2 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 126 125 123 117 111 103 96 90 85 82 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 113 112 110 105 100 94 87 81 76 74 73 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.7 -57.4 -59.0 -59.9 -59.9 -60.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 43 36 32 28 37 42 38 49 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 7 10 14 18 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -19 -15 -25 -32 -51 -47 -43 11 50 60 54 200 MB DIV -22 -4 21 20 0 24 42 47 54 56 34 59 43 700-850 TADV 8 1 1 5 4 -3 6 -12 6 3 5 1 7 LAND (KM) 1577 1644 1713 1833 1952 2155 2143 2143 2171 1969 1843 1582 1345 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.1 26.9 28.0 29.0 30.5 32.3 34.2 36.1 37.8 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.6 51.3 50.9 50.0 49.1 46.6 43.4 39.7 35.9 32.6 30.0 27.3 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 18 18 16 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 31 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. -1. -8. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 13. 11. 13. 17. 22. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)