* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 57 63 69 82 91 101 102 100 89 79 69 V (KT) LAND 45 50 57 63 69 77 65 73 74 72 61 51 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 57 61 65 56 58 60 58 54 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 7 10 15 20 28 29 34 49 42 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 0 1 2 0 5 4 7 -2 12 -3 SHEAR DIR 280 265 246 234 235 218 228 197 193 207 219 209 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 160 160 160 159 152 143 136 133 129 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 154 155 154 152 150 140 128 118 116 115 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.3 -51.5 -50.2 -50.2 -49.3 -49.8 -49.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 83 81 82 83 79 71 62 53 57 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 21 24 31 33 40 42 45 42 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 132 139 153 153 156 186 222 262 258 285 259 247 241 200 MB DIV 112 122 140 140 160 169 171 159 123 31 30 61 69 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 7 11 25 21 5 -4 -8 -3 -17 -27 LAND (KM) 427 409 345 239 133 26 -63 189 415 551 613 790 741 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.5 18.5 20.5 22.8 24.9 26.3 27.0 28.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.8 77.5 77.3 77.1 76.7 76.3 75.8 75.3 74.6 73.9 72.2 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 10 10 10 11 11 9 6 8 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 116 130 134 127 94 72 75 69 65 47 28 18 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 14. 21. 23. 25. 23. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 24. 37. 46. 56. 58. 55. 44. 34. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 120.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 56% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)