* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192012 10/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 45 46 44 44 44 45 44 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 45 46 44 44 44 45 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 37 37 39 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 20 20 22 32 38 54 46 57 53 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 1 -2 3 1 -6 0 -12 -8 2 0 SHEAR DIR 304 240 232 244 243 239 252 255 252 252 249 262 262 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.1 23.0 21.8 20.8 19.7 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 121 118 114 107 101 94 88 83 79 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 109 108 107 104 102 96 91 85 79 75 72 70 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.5 -58.1 -58.8 -59.2 -59.3 -59.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 46 46 42 38 34 28 31 36 45 50 51 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -12 -22 -20 -32 -25 -16 31 59 87 26 -42 200 MB DIV -4 8 17 1 4 49 34 50 82 62 39 49 24 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 3 -2 -5 -6 -10 -3 12 27 22 1 LAND (KM) 1686 1767 1849 1966 2082 2103 2067 2046 2055 2023 1944 1745 1525 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.7 29.9 31.5 33.4 35.8 38.5 40.8 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 50.7 50.2 49.2 48.2 45.7 42.9 39.7 36.3 33.7 32.1 30.0 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 16 16 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 12 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -4. -12. -20. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 16. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)