* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 65 70 81 91 99 98 89 82 71 62 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 65 70 67 69 76 75 67 59 48 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 56 59 63 55 56 55 52 49 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 14 12 21 29 28 32 35 37 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 4 3 0 9 7 3 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 276 212 225 213 216 219 206 199 195 220 221 221 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 161 161 151 143 138 133 125 123 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 155 155 154 154 139 128 121 116 109 107 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -49.9 -48.9 -49.0 -48.4 -49.1 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 82 84 79 72 63 53 60 66 55 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 23 28 30 35 40 46 47 44 45 46 46 850 MB ENV VOR 141 152 152 158 169 215 238 251 265 245 246 257 257 200 MB DIV 141 152 148 174 206 164 205 160 100 32 70 102 74 700-850 TADV 2 3 9 12 24 37 28 4 -6 -1 0 -11 -19 LAND (KM) 414 312 211 101 9 -15 143 338 405 488 691 683 758 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.8 20.0 22.7 24.7 26.2 27.6 29.2 30.4 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.5 77.2 77.1 76.9 76.7 76.5 76.4 76.1 75.2 73.3 71.4 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 13 11 9 7 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 130 134 121 83 63 107 66 68 45 33 10 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 25. 22. 22. 21. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 25. 36. 46. 54. 53. 44. 37. 26. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 164.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 106.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 69% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 40% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 11( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)