* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192012 10/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 46 47 44 46 49 54 60 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 46 47 44 46 49 54 60 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 36 39 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 20 18 21 23 36 42 45 53 33 21 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 0 0 2 -1 0 -9 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 248 238 232 243 238 259 238 254 240 226 209 331 291 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.8 23.9 22.9 21.7 20.7 19.3 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 119 116 111 105 99 93 88 84 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 107 106 103 98 94 89 84 79 76 71 69 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 -55.9 -55.5 -55.8 -56.3 -57.9 -59.3 -59.5 -60.0 -60.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 41 36 32 31 25 27 36 51 59 51 50 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 11 13 15 19 11 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -11 -23 -19 -16 -27 -18 8 51 112 138 89 -5 200 MB DIV 0 11 12 16 53 40 35 108 90 55 70 37 1 700-850 TADV 2 10 6 -6 -9 2 -12 0 -2 11 34 -10 19 LAND (KM) 1778 1877 1976 2103 2155 2130 2104 2096 2091 2007 1832 1799 1606 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.8 30.0 31.5 33.4 36.1 39.6 42.3 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 49.8 49.0 47.8 46.6 44.4 41.7 38.7 35.7 33.6 32.7 31.1 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 11 12 14 15 15 17 16 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -13. -19. -21. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 14. 16. 19. 24. 30. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 NINETEEN 10/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)