* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 73 81 92 94 92 84 78 70 66 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 58 70 59 69 72 70 62 55 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 59 60 51 56 57 55 51 47 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 11 5 23 35 30 31 34 42 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 6 -1 4 11 5 4 -2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 248 241 185 184 194 221 199 203 191 209 208 201 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 161 163 156 147 141 136 129 123 119 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 156 155 157 146 133 124 119 114 109 102 100 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.1 -49.2 -49.4 -49.7 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 82 82 74 61 51 51 58 62 57 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 27 30 33 34 41 42 44 42 44 44 48 850 MB ENV VOR 149 147 155 174 198 225 263 261 259 253 243 251 247 200 MB DIV 157 137 180 215 176 193 185 133 18 45 86 84 69 700-850 TADV 7 14 15 15 17 25 10 -3 -8 -2 -13 -21 -14 LAND (KM) 322 211 102 -5 80 32 241 351 396 575 636 700 827 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.1 21.6 23.9 25.6 27.0 28.5 30.5 31.7 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.2 77.0 76.9 76.8 76.6 76.8 76.7 76.1 74.5 72.0 69.8 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 9 12 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 138 122 85 56 82 75 69 57 42 24 8 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 18. 20. 19. 20. 18. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 42. 44. 42. 34. 28. 20. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 173.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/24/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)