* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 46 48 46 45 46 50 53 61 61 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 46 48 46 45 46 50 53 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 37 36 38 43 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 24 28 29 35 48 44 42 25 8 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -3 2 5 2 2 -2 -2 -2 10 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 228 230 214 218 234 234 238 251 238 206 208 297 310 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.7 23.9 23.1 22.3 21.2 20.4 17.9 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 110 104 99 93 89 86 83 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 107 104 99 93 89 83 80 79 76 68 66 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -57.8 -58.3 -60.0 -59.5 -60.6 -60.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 38 35 30 30 30 32 45 56 54 54 51 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 10 12 11 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -23 -14 -12 -28 -24 -30 -9 43 111 118 34 -72 200 MB DIV 10 37 21 59 79 62 67 77 114 66 34 2 -25 700-850 TADV 9 11 0 -5 7 -1 0 -3 3 16 23 -21 -45 LAND (KM) 1865 2027 2157 2132 2118 2134 2195 2098 2054 1884 1502 1341 1391 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 27.9 28.5 29.1 30.0 31.0 32.4 34.4 37.6 41.8 44.9 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 48.4 47.0 45.4 43.8 41.0 37.7 35.0 33.5 33.8 35.5 35.8 34.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 14 14 14 12 13 19 19 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -8. -15. -19. -18. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 26. 30. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 11. 10. 11. 15. 18. 26. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/24/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)